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Alberta-Economic-Outlook-Q2-2015

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SAVING І BORROWING І INVESTING І KNOW-HOW ™ Trademarks of Alberta Treasury Branches. Alberta Economic Outlook Q2 2015 Prepared by ATB Financial, Economics and Research March 31, 2015 ATB Financial's Alberta Economic Outlook is released at the beginning of each quarter of the financial calendar. It's designed to summarize our province's economic landscape and give us an idea of what the next three months look like (April – June, 2015). The Economic Outlook provides Albertans with economic commentary that is trusted, meaningful and easy to understand. Provincial Overview Since the first quarter Economic Outlook the price of crude oil has fallen even further; this has negatively altered the outlook for Alberta's economy for 2015. Still, even with the drag set to weigh on the economy, an outright contraction remains somewhat unlikely. ATB Financial's Economics and Research team projects real GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in 2015, with gradual recovery in 2016 and beyond. KEY RESULTS: • Alberta's economy will slow significantly in 2015 with real GDP growth of 0.8 per cent. • Labour markets are being affected by rising unemployment. • Consistently weak oil and natural gas prices have curtailed investment in the energy sector. • Housing starts remain stable, but softness in residential real estate suggests construction activity will cool. • Net interprovincial in- migration will slow but should remain positive. Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP 3.7 0.8 1.7 3.1 Consumer Price Index (annual % change) 2.5 1.1 2.1 2.1 Unemployment Rate 4.7 6.0 5.8 4.9 Employment (% chg.) 2.2 0.0 2.0 2.8 Population (millions) 4.122 4.201 4.277 4.358

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