ATB is forecasting real GDP growth for Alberta of 2.1 per cent in 2019.
“It’s a slower growth rate, however relative to the national average and other Canadian provinces, Alberta’s economy is still growing at an above average rate,” said ATB’s Chief Economist Todd Hirsch.
Other key findings include:
- Employment is expanding slowly but inconsistently across sectors
- The risk of a global economic downturn has increased slightly since August
- The surplus of western Canadian heavy oil—and the resulting low price—presents a challenge
- Pipeline transportation remains unresolved
- Interprovincial in-migration to Alberta has returned to modestly positive
- The new trade deal with the United States and Mexico (USCMA) is favourable
As far as new risks emerging, Hirsch is keeping an eye on the global economy and a potential slowdown that could come next year.